Twenty-one variables from satellites, soil databases, weather stations, and census data flow into
nine financial pipelines. Each variable is grounded in peer-reviewed science and applied
cell by cell across MALT's 58,768 acres at 64-meter resolution — 57,840 deduped cells across 12 months.
These are the numbers behind the $165.54M/yr — $6,960/ha ($2,817/acre) — and why they change every month.
A Word on What This Is — and What It Is Not
The word methodology carries weight. It implies rigor. We use it deliberately, but also honestly:
what you see here is scaffolding — a structured framework for measuring ecological value,
not a finished building. These numbers are only as trustworthy as the data that feeds them, and right now,
that data comes from a single source: satellite imagery interpreted through models we built ourselves.
That is not enough. A single data stream can be noisy, biased, or simply wrong — clouds blind optical
sensors, algorithms carry assumptions, and models are approximations of reality, never reality itself. We know this.
This is why we are building an oracle. Not a single pipeline, but 3–5 independent data streams
that must all agree before a value is recorded as truth:
800 km
Satellite
Sentinel-2, MODIS, ECOSTRESS
120 m
Drones
Multispectral, LiDAR, cm resolution
▼ convergence ▼
In-situ
Soil Sensors
IoT probes, moisture, carbon
Autonomous
Ground Robotics
Sample collection, terrain mapping
Laboratory
Lab Analysis
Soil assays, tissue tests
▼ convergence ▼
AI Computation
Cross-validates all streams, flags divergence
Human Stewards
Local knowledge, the final word
Drones went from military hardware to sub-$500 multispectral cameras in under a decade.
Ground robotics is on the same curve — autonomous units that walk a ranch, collect samples,
and return data without human intervention. As these tools get cheaper, the oracle gets denser,
and the distance between measurement and ground truth shrinks toward zero.
Each data point must correlate with the others. When satellite NDVI says the land is healthy,
the soil sensors should confirm it. When the model says carbon is being sequestered, the lab assay
should show rising organic matter. When all five streams converge on the same answer, we have something
approaching truth. When they diverge, we have a signal to investigate — not to paper over.
The formulas below are the scaffolding. The oracle is what makes them honest.
We publish this methodology not because it is finished, but because transparency is the only
foundation worth building on.
The Yearly Picture
12 monthly Sentinel-2 satellite scans, January – December 2025. Real CDEC rain gauge data, MVC NDVI compositing. One snapshot lies. A full year tells the truth.
Data loading — 0 of 12 months complete. The sweep is still running.
From Satellite to Dollar
How raw data becomes ecosystem value
Sentinel-2 + MODISSatellite imagery
→
21 VariablesBiophysical inputs
→
9 PipelinesFinancial valuation
→
57,840 Cells × 12 MonthsPer-cell ESV ledger
→
$165.54M/yr$6,960/ha · $2,817/ac
The 21 Variables
Click any variable to learn what it captures, how the formula works, and what it means for MALT's conservation easements in Marin County.
1
NDVI (Vegetation Index)Feeds → Carbon, Soil, Bio▶
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index — the foundational satellite measurement. NDVI ranges from 0 (bare rock, water) to 1 (dense, healthy vegetation). Sentinel-2 measures this monthly at 10-meter resolution. NDVI drives three pipelines simultaneously: it determines CO₂ sequestration capacity, the C-factor for soil erosion, and habitat quality for biodiversity.
C-factor = max(0.01, exp(−2 × NDVI / (1 − NDVI)))
MALT: Average NDVI across MALT easements ranges from 0.4–0.7, peaking in spring when winter rains drive green-up. The 12-month NDVI trajectory captures Marin's Mediterranean rhythm — lush green winters, golden dry summers. Each month's NDVI feeds directly into carbon, soil, and biodiversity calculations.
2
CO₂ Sequestration RateFeeds → Carbon▶
How many tons of carbon dioxide this land pulls from the atmosphere each year. Trees, grasses, and soil microbes absorb CO₂ and lock it into organic matter. Healthy oak woodland sequesters about 3.5 tons per hectare per year. Pavement sequesters zero — and actually leaks carbon as buried soil slowly decomposes.
Value = sequestration rate × $190 (Social Cost of Carbon, EPA 2024)
MALT: The Marin Carbon Project measured ~1 tC/ha/yr on rangeland, higher in oak woodlands. Across 58,768 acres, this produces $4.36M/yr in carbon value (3% of total). These easements have been sequestering carbon for 45 years — the soil is a bank that grows richer every season.
Carbon stored in the topsoil, measured in grams per square meter from the USDA SSURGO soil database. SOC is the bridge between carbon and soil pipelines — soils rich in organic matter both store carbon and resist erosion. SOC feeds directly into the K-factor (soil erodibility) calculation: more organic matter means lower erodibility.
omPct = (SOC / 3900) × 100 × 1.724 → K = 0.45 × exp(−0.12 × omPct)
MALT: Decades of managed grazing and the Marin Carbon Project's compost trials have built organic matter in these soils. Higher SOC means lower K-factors, which means the soil actively resists the erosive force of Marin's winter storms. The carbon isn't just stored — it's structural.
4
PrecipitationFeeds → Water, Soil, Flood▶
Total rainfall in millimeters per year, from PRISM climate data. Precipitation feeds three pipelines: water yield (precipitation minus evapotranspiration), rainfall erosivity (R-factor for soil retention), and flood runoff (SCS curve number model). Winter storms drive most of the financial value.
R-factor = 0.04830 × P1.61 (Renard & Freimund)
MALT: West Marin receives ~900 mm/yr in a Mediterranean climate — winter-wet, summer-dry. This rainfall feeds the Marin Municipal Water District reservoirs and drives the R-factor that makes soil retention so valuable. November peaks at 200+ mm, when erosion prevention matters most.
5
EvapotranspirationFeeds → Water, Cooling▶
Water that plants breathe back into the air through their leaves. This is nature's air conditioning — every liter evaporated absorbs heat energy and cools the surroundings. High ET means the land is actively cooling itself and filtering water through roots. This one number connects the water pipeline to the cooling pipeline.
MALT: The oak and bay laurel canopy across MALT easements drives high ET, acting as natural air conditioning for communities from Novato to Point Reyes. Its largest payoff is cooling (counted separately, below). The land also recharges groundwater in the wettest months, when rainfall exceeds evapotranspiration — a more modest water-yield pipeline of $1.5M/yr (1%).
How much hotter or cooler this land is compared to the regional baseline, measured by satellite infrared sensors. Forests are typically 4°C cooler than bare ground. Downtown concrete can be 8°C hotter. This directly drives electricity costs and health outcomes.
MALT: Satellite thermal data shows MALT easements are consistently 3–5°C cooler than developed areas in Novato and San Rafael. This cooling effect extends beyond easement boundaries, reducing AC demand and contributing $29.69M/yr in cooling value (18% of total).
7
Building FootprintFeeds → Cooling▶
The percentage of land covered by buildings with roofs and HVAC systems. This determines how much of the heat island penalty translates into actual electricity bills. A parking lot is hot but has no AC units. A downtown block at 60% building footprint means 60% of that heat is being fought with air conditioning.
Cooling cost = 0.7 kWh/m²/°C × heat delta × building % × electricity rate
MALT: Building footprint on conservation easements is effectively 0%. That's the entire point — removing the right to develop keeps the cooling pipeline firmly positive instead of becoming an energy liability.
8
Electricity RateFeeds → Cooling▶
Local price per kilowatt-hour. This multiplier turns excess heat into dollars. The same heat island costs more in California than in Texas. It's the bridge between a physical measurement and a financial liability.
MALT: PG&E rates in Marin County average ~$0.37/kWh — among the highest in the nation. Every degree of cooling that MALT lands provide is worth significantly more here than almost anywhere else in the country.
9
Land Cover (NLCD)Feeds → All 9 Pipelines▶
USGS National Land Cover Database classification at 30-meter resolution. Every 64m cell is assigned a type: deciduous forest (41), evergreen forest (42), grassland (71), pasture (81), wetland (90/95), or developed (21–24). This is the backbone variable — it sets base coefficients for carbon sequestration, biodiversity, pollination, nutrient loading, and SCS curve numbers across all nine pipelines.
MALT: The NLCD mosaic across MALT easements — oak woodland, coastal scrub, grassland, and managed pasture — produces a diverse set of high-value land cover types. Each type contributes different ecological services, which is why a mixed landscape like Marin's is worth more per hectare than a monoculture.
10
Impervious SurfaceFeeds → All 9 Pipelines▶
The single most important number. Percentage of land sealed by concrete, asphalt, or buildings. This is the master switch — it flips almost every pipeline from positive to negative. Above 50% impervious, water becomes a liability, biodiversity drops to zero, soil stops forming, and health costs appear. Downtown LA is 95% impervious. A forest is 0%.
MALT: Conservation easements are 0–5% impervious. The legal protection guarantees the master switch stays positive — permanently. They didn't just protect land for a season. They removed the right to destroy it. All nine pipelines stay positive, every year, forever.
11
Slope (SSURGO slope_r)Feeds → Soil Retention▶
Terrain steepness in percent, from the USDA SSURGO soil survey database. Steeper slopes mean faster runoff, longer flow paths, and exponentially more erosion potential. This is the single biggest driver of MALT's value — Marin's coastal hills are steep, and steep terrain protected by vegetation is extraordinarily valuable.
LS = (λ/22.13)0.5 × (0.065 + 0.045S + 0.0065S²)
MALT: Mean slope across MALT easements is 35%, with the 90th percentile at 63%. On flat land (5% slope), the LS-factor might be 0.5. At 35%, it's 5–10. At 63%, it's 15–20. This is why soil retention dominates the portfolio: the terrain multiplier is massive.
The erosive power of rainfall — how hard and how much it rains. Computed from annual precipitation using the Renard & Freimund equation. Marin's intense winter storms deliver concentrated rainfall that hits exposed soil like a firehose. More rain doesn't just mean more water — it means exponentially more erosive energy.
R = 0.04830 × P1.61 (P in mm/yr)
MALT: At ~900 mm/yr, Marin's R-factor is moderate-to-high. Most rain falls November–March, compressing erosive energy into 5 months. The R-factor peaks exactly when it matters most — during the wet season when soil loss would be catastrophic without vegetative cover.
How easily the soil erodes, computed from SSURGO soil organic carbon data. High organic matter binds soil particles together, making them resist erosion. Sandy or silty soils with little organic matter wash away easily.
K = max(0.02, min(0.45, 0.45 × exp(−0.12 × omPct)))
MALT: Decades of managed grazing and compost application have built organic matter, keeping K-factors in the 0.02–0.15 range. The soil literally holds itself together because it's alive with organic matter.
14
LS-Factor (Slope-Length)Feeds → Soil Retention▶
Combined slope length and steepness factor from the Universal Soil Loss Equation. Longer, steeper slopes concentrate runoff and accelerate erosion. Computed per-cell from SSURGO slope data using a 64-meter flow length. The LS-factor is the terrain amplifier — it multiplies erosion potential by 10–20× on steep hills compared to flat ground.
LS = (64/22.13)0.5 × (0.065 + 0.045 × slope% + 0.0065 × slope%²)
MALT: With mean slopes of 35%, MALT's LS-factors are 5–20× higher than flat agricultural land. This single factor explains why soil retention is 54% of the portfolio: the terrain creates enormous erosion potential that vegetation prevents.
From the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier & Smith 1978). The C-factor measures how well vegetation protects soil from raindrop impact and runoff. 0 = perfect cover, 1.0 = bare soil. Dense forest = 0.01. Bare construction site = 1.0. Computed monthly from NDVI, capturing the seasonal protection cycle.
Erosion avoided = R × K × LS × (1 − C) × P → Value = tonnes × $15/t
MALT: Dense perennial grassland and oak cover give C of 0.01–0.05. Combined with steep slopes (high LS) and winter rainfall (high R), the USLE reveals these easements prevent massive soil loss. Soil retention is the dominant pipeline: $89.02M/yr (54%).
16
Hydrologic Soil Group (SSURGO)Feeds → Flood▶
USDA classification (A, B, C, or D) of how quickly soil absorbs water. Group A = rapid infiltration, low runoff. Group D = very slow infiltration, high runoff. This feeds directly into the SCS Curve Number, which determines how much rainfall becomes surface runoff versus groundwater recharge.
MALT: Marin's clay-loam soils are predominantly Group B and C. Conservation cover on B/C soil still has much lower runoff than developed land on Group A soil. Land management matters more than soil type.
17
SCS Curve NumberFeeds → Flood▶
USDA TR-55 runoff potential index (0–100). Higher CN = more runoff. Determined by combining land cover type with hydrologic soil group. Forest on Group B: CN≈55. Impervious on Group D: CN≈98. The SCS model converts rainfall into retained water — volume the land absorbs instead of flooding downstream.
S = (25400/CN) − 254 → Q = (P − 0.2S)²/(P + 0.8S) → Retained × $0.075/m³
MALT: Low curve numbers on grassland and forest mean MALT land absorbs winter storms instead of sending flash floods into Novato and coastal communities. Flood retention reaches $13.4M/yr (8%) — the portfolio's third-largest service — peaking sharply in November and February during atmospheric rivers.
18
Nutrient Load & RetentionFeeds → Nutrient▶
Nitrogen and phosphorus loading from land use, minus what the ecosystem filters out through root uptake and soil binding. Based on InVEST NDR (Nutrient Delivery Ratio) model coefficients by land cover type. Forest and wetlands are natural filters that intercept nutrients before they reach waterways, preventing algal blooms and dead zones.
Retention = Load × efficiency × NDVI_factor → Value at export-weighted treatment cost
MALT: Native vegetation prevents agricultural runoff from reaching Tomales Bay and Pacific coast watersheds. The nutrient pipeline contributes $0.67M/yr (<1%) — a small but ecologically critical service protecting marine ecosystems and shellfish operations.
19
Population DensityFeeds → Cooling, Health▶
People per square kilometer. This is the exposure multiplier. A hot parking lot in the desert hurts nobody. The same heat in a dense city sends thousands to the ER. Population density doesn't change what the land does — it changes how many people are affected by it.
MALT: Population density on the easements themselves is low (~17/km²). But adjacent communities — Novato, San Rafael, Petaluma — are home to over 100,000 people who benefit from clean air, clean water, and cooler temperatures. The health pipeline captures $11.82M/yr (7%).
How much the greenness of a cell changes across 12 monthly scans. A monoculture has high NDVI but low variance — biologically monotonous. A mixed landscape has high variance because different species leaf out at different times, creating year-round habitat niches. More niches = more species = higher ecological value. This is why we run 12 monthly scans instead of one.
MALT: The mix of oak woodland, coastal scrub, wetlands, and rangeland produces high seasonal NDVI variance — a direct signal of biodiversity. The 13,079 acres of forest and 647 acres of wetlands create a habitat mosaic worth $10.53M/yr in biodiversity value (6%).
21
Pollination Service ValueFeeds → Pollination▶
The economic value of wild pollinators supported by this habitat for surrounding agriculture. Land next to almond orchards in California's Central Valley could be worth $1,000+/ha in pollination alone. This depends entirely on what crops are nearby and what habitat the pollinators need.
MALT: West Marin's working ranches and farms depend on native pollinators that nest and forage in the wildlands protected by MALT easements. Unlike industrial agriculture that trucks in honeybee colonies, this is a self-sustaining pollination economy — worth $4.47M/yr (3%).
How They Connect
Soil retention dominates because of terrain. Five USLE variables (slope, R-factor, K-factor, LS-factor, C-factor) combine to reveal that Marin's steep coastal hills — mean 35% slope, p90 at 63% — create enormous erosion potential. Vegetation prevents it. This single insight drives $89.02M/yr (54% of the portfolio). Remove the cover and these hillsides hemorrhage topsoil.
Impervious surface is the master switch. MALT keeps it near 0% on every easement. That single fact guarantees all nine pipelines stay positive — permanently. This is the structural genius of the conservation easement: remove the right to destroy, and every ecological service follows.
SSURGO connects six variables. Slope, SOC, K-factor, LS-factor, hydrologic soil group, and curve number all flow from a single USDA soil survey query. This is the backbone of v4.0: real soil science data instead of satellite approximations. The soil knows what it is.
Evapotranspiration links water and cooling. MALT's oak canopy breathes water into the air, simultaneously filtering groundwater for MMWD reservoirs and cooling the air for surrounding communities. One biological process, two financial pipelines, $31.2M combined (19% of total ESV).
The 12-month average captures what a single snapshot misses. January NDVI in Marin looks radically different from August. Winter rains drive green-up; summer drought turns grasslands golden. A single scan would overvalue or undervalue by tens of millions. Twelve scans tell the truth.
